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Ajax vs Vitesse — Eredivisie 2018

Ajax
Ajax
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Vitesse
Vitesse
11/25/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 13Johan Cruijff Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Ajax65%
×Draw19%
Vitesse16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax
2.30
Vitesse
1.06

Ajax creates 117% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 102 away

creates per match

Ajax
2.88
Vitesse
1.31

allows per match

Ajax
0.82
Vitesse
1.72

finishing

Ajax+0.00on par
Vitesse+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax ↓

Vitesse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ajax or draw
84%
Ajax or Vitesse
81%
Draw or Vitesse
35%

Winning margin

Ajax wins by 2+
42%
Vitesse wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ajax 1+ goals
90%
Ajax 2+ goals
67%
Ajax 3+ goals
40%
Vitesse 1+ goals
65%
Vitesse 2+ goals
29%
Vitesse 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ajax (draw refunded)
80%
Vitesse (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.82 · 133 matches

Vitesse away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.72 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax attack 2.88 + Vitesse defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.30

Vitesse attack 1.31 + Ajax defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ajax scores more
65%
level
19%
Vitesse scores more
16%

Ajax at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ajax vs Vitesse

Ajax beat Vitesse 5-0 in Eredivisie on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam.