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Sharjah FC vs Al Ain — League #302 2026

Sharjah FC
Sharjah FC
FT
1 – 4
Al Ain
Al Ain
Coronado 80'
Jamal Maroof 88'
T. Shiotani 78'
Caio Lucas 34', 10' (pen)
9/5/2018League #302League #302 · Group Stage - 1Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium (Al Sharjah (Sharjah))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sharjah FC21%
×Draw19%
Al Ain60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sharjah FC
1.42
Al Ain
2.46

Al Ain creates 73% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sharjah FC
1.33
Al Ain
2.25

allows per match

Sharjah FC
2.67
Al Ain
1.50

finishing

Sharjah FC+0.00on par
Al Ain+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sharjah FC ↓

Al Ain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Sharjah FC or draw
40%
Sharjah FC or Al Ain
81%
Draw or Al Ain
79%

Winning margin

Sharjah FC wins by 2+
9%
Al Ain wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Sharjah FC 1+ goals
76%
Sharjah FC 2+ goals
41%
Sharjah FC 3+ goals
17%
Al Ain 1+ goals
91%
Al Ain 2+ goals
70%
Al Ain 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Sharjah FC (draw refunded)
26%
Al Ain (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sharjah FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Al Ain away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sharjah FC attack 1.33 + Al Ain defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Al Ain attack 2.25 + Sharjah FC defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sharjah FC scores more
21%
level
19%
Al Ain scores more
60%

Al Ain at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al Ain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Caio LucasPenalty
34'
Caio Lucas↳ Jamal Maroof
40'
Ali Mohamed Khameis← Mohamed Ayoun
40'
Muhain Khalifa Muhain← Tariq Abdalla
66'
Falah Waleed← Saad Khamis Saad
73'
Abdalla Nasir← Shahin Abdulrahman
78'
T. Shiotani↳ Caio Lucas
80'
Coronado
81'
Saeed Mosabah Salem← Mohammed Khalfan
88'
Jamal Maroof↳ Ali Mohammed
89'
Mohamed Fathy← Caio Lucas

League #302: Sharjah FC 1–4 Al Ain

Al Ain beat Sharjah FC 4-1 in League #302 on September 5, 2018.

Goals: Caio Lucas (10' pen, 34'), T. Shiotani (78'), Coronado (80'), Jamal Maroof (88').

The match was played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium (Al Sharjah (Sharjah)).