Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Miami FC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies — USL Championship 2026

Miami FC
Miami FC
Preview
23:00
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies
7/25/2026USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Group StageRiccardo Silva Stadium
Big match
41%
Tampa Bay Rowdies
model favours
33%26%41%

Miami FC score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Miami FC33%
×Draw26%
Tampa Bay Rowdies41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miami FC
1.27
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.43

Tampa Bay Rowdies creates 13% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 136 away

creates per match

Miami FC
1.37
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.34

allows per match

Miami FC
1.52
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.18

finishing

Miami FC+0.00on par
Tampa Bay Rowdies+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miami FC ↓

Tampa Bay Rowdies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Miami FC or draw
59%
Miami FC or Tampa Bay Rowdies
74%
Draw or Tampa Bay Rowdies
67%

Winning margin

Miami FC wins by 2+
14%
Tampa Bay Rowdies wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Miami FC 1+ goals
72%
Miami FC 2+ goals
36%
Miami FC 3+ goals
14%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 1+ goals
76%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 2+ goals
42%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Miami FC (draw refunded)
45%
Tampa Bay Rowdies (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miami FC at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.52 · 98 matches

Tampa Bay Rowdies away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miami FC attack 1.37 + Tampa Bay Rowdies defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tampa Bay Rowdies attack 1.34 + Miami FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Miami FC scores more
33%
level
26%
Tampa Bay Rowdies scores more
41%

Tampa Bay Rowdies at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tampa Bay Rowdies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 83% of Tampa Bay Rowdies’s matches
  • Tampa Bay Rowdies have won 9 of the last 10 meetings
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • 31% of Miami FC’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
LWWDL
Rowdies
DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Miami FC face Tampa Bay Rowdies (USL Championship)

USL Championship returns with Miami FC hosting Tampa Bay Rowdies. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Miami FC host Tampa Bay Rowdies at Riccardo Silva Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.