Miami FC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies — USL League One Cup 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Miami FC25%
Tampa Bay Rowdies54%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Tampa Bay Rowdies creates 50% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over72
- Under28
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes69
- No31
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Miami FC ↓
Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Miami FC at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches
Tampa Bay Rowdies away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Miami FC attack 2.25 + Tampa Bay Rowdies defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.50
Tampa Bay Rowdies attack 2.25 + Miami FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.25
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Tampa Bay Rowdies at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Tampa Bay Rowdies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Miami FC host Tampa Bay Rowdies on Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 23:00. The match is part of the USL League One Cup 2024/2025 season.
Match Recap: Miami FC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies beat Miami FC 4-1 in USL League One Cup on May 16, 2026.
Goals: L. Perez (12'), M. Myers (42', 47'), M. Schneider (68'), M. Tunbridge (80').
The match was played at Riccardo Silva Stadium.