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Miami FC vs San Diego Loyal — USL Championship 2018

Miami FC
Miami FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
San Diego Loyal
San Diego Loyal
5/20/2023USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 13Riccardo Silva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Miami FC35%
×Draw25%
San Diego Loyal40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miami FC
1.42
San Diego Loyal
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 59 away

creates per match

Miami FC
1.37
San Diego Loyal
1.54

allows per match

Miami FC
1.52
San Diego Loyal
1.46

finishing

Miami FC+0.00on par
San Diego Loyal+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miami FC ↓

San Diego Loyal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Miami FC or draw
60%
Miami FC or San Diego Loyal
75%
Draw or San Diego Loyal
65%

Winning margin

Miami FC wins by 2+
16%
San Diego Loyal wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Miami FC 1+ goals
76%
Miami FC 2+ goals
41%
Miami FC 3+ goals
17%
San Diego Loyal 1+ goals
78%
San Diego Loyal 2+ goals
45%
San Diego Loyal 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Miami FC (draw refunded)
47%
San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miami FC at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.52 · 98 matches

San Diego Loyal away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miami FC attack 1.37 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

San Diego Loyal attack 1.54 + Miami FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Miami FC scores more
35%
level
25%
San Diego Loyal scores more
40%

San Diego Loyal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "San Diego Loyal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Miami FC vs San Diego Loyal

San Diego Loyal beat Miami FC 3-2 in USL Championship on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Riccardo Silva Stadium in Miami, Florida.