Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Miami FC vs Rio Grande Valley — USL Championship 2018

Miami FC
Miami FC
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 0
Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
6/6/2021USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 9FIU Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Miami FC41%
×Draw25%
Rio Grande Valley35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miami FC
1.52
Rio Grande Valley
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 93 away

creates per match

Miami FC
1.37
Rio Grande Valley
1.25

allows per match

Miami FC
1.52
Rio Grande Valley
1.66

finishing

Miami FC+0.00on par
Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miami FC ↓

Rio Grande Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Miami FC or draw
65%
Miami FC or Rio Grande Valley
75%
Draw or Rio Grande Valley
59%

Winning margin

Miami FC wins by 2+
20%
Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Miami FC 1+ goals
78%
Miami FC 2+ goals
45%
Miami FC 3+ goals
20%
Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
75%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
40%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Miami FC (draw refunded)
54%
Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miami FC at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.52 · 98 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miami FC attack 1.37 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.25 + Miami FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Miami FC scores more
41%
level
25%
Rio Grande Valley scores more
35%

Miami FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Miami FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Miami FC vs Rio Grande Valley

Rio Grande Valley beat Miami FC 4-2 in USL Championship on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at FIU Soccer Stadium in Miami, Florida.