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Miami AC vs Caledonia — USL League Two 2018

Miami AC
Miami AC
FT
2 – 1
Caledonia
Caledonia
6/26/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 51Tropical Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Miami AC70%
×Draw18%
Caledonia12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miami AC
2.27
Caledonia
0.80

Miami AC creates 184% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 7 away

creates per match

Miami AC
1.40
Caledonia
0.57

allows per match

Miami AC
1.04
Caledonia
3.14

finishing

Miami AC+0.00on par
Caledonia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miami AC ↓

Caledonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Miami AC or draw
88%
Miami AC or Caledonia
82%
Draw or Caledonia
30%

Winning margin

Miami AC wins by 2+
47%
Caledonia wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Miami AC 1+ goals
90%
Miami AC 2+ goals
66%
Miami AC 3+ goals
39%
Caledonia 1+ goals
55%
Caledonia 2+ goals
19%
Caledonia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Miami AC (draw refunded)
86%
Caledonia (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miami AC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Caledonia away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miami AC attack 1.40 + Caledonia defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.27

Caledonia attack 0.57 + Miami AC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Miami AC scores more
70%
level
18%
Caledonia scores more
12%

Miami AC at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Miami AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Miami AC vs Caledonia

Miami AC beat Caledonia 2-1 in USL League Two on June 26, 2022.

The match was played at Tropical Park Stadium in Miami, Florida.