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Miajadas vs Valdivia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Miajadas
Miajadas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Valdivia
Valdivia
3/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 28Estadio Municipal de Miajadas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Miajadas55%
×Draw24%
Valdivia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miajadas
1.70
Valdivia
0.94

Miajadas creates 81% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 29 away

creates per match

Miajadas
1.13
Valdivia
0.55

allows per match

Miajadas
1.32
Valdivia
2.28

finishing

Miajadas+0.00on par
Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miajadas ↓

Valdivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Miajadas or draw
79%
Miajadas or Valdivia
76%
Draw or Valdivia
45%

Winning margin

Miajadas wins by 2+
30%
Valdivia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Miajadas 1+ goals
82%
Miajadas 2+ goals
51%
Miajadas 3+ goals
24%
Valdivia 1+ goals
61%
Valdivia 2+ goals
24%
Valdivia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Miajadas (draw refunded)
73%
Valdivia (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miajadas at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Valdivia away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miajadas attack 1.13 + Valdivia defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.70

Valdivia attack 0.55 + Miajadas defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Miajadas scores more
55%
level
24%
Valdivia scores more
21%

Miajadas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Miajadas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Miajadas 1–0 Valdivia

Miajadas beat Valdivia 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Miajadas in Miajadas.