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Miajadas vs Trujillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Miajadas
Miajadas
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Trujillo
Trujillo
4/14/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 29Estadio Municipal de Miajadas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Miajadas38%
×Draw27%
Trujillo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miajadas
1.25
Trujillo
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 92 away

creates per match

Miajadas
1.13
Trujillo
1.03

allows per match

Miajadas
1.32
Trujillo
1.37

finishing

Miajadas+0.00on par
Trujillo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miajadas ↓

Trujillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Miajadas or draw
65%
Miajadas or Trujillo
73%
Draw or Trujillo
62%

Winning margin

Miajadas wins by 2+
17%
Trujillo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Miajadas 1+ goals
71%
Miajadas 2+ goals
36%
Miajadas 3+ goals
13%
Trujillo 1+ goals
69%
Trujillo 2+ goals
33%
Trujillo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Miajadas (draw refunded)
52%
Trujillo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miajadas at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Trujillo away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miajadas attack 1.13 + Trujillo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Trujillo attack 1.03 + Miajadas defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Miajadas scores more
38%
level
27%
Trujillo scores more
35%

Miajadas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Miajadas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Miajadas 2–3 Trujillo

Trujillo beat Miajadas 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 14, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Miajadas in Miajadas.