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Miajadas vs Olivenza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Miajadas
Miajadas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Olivenza
Olivenza
10/2/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 4Estadio Municipal de Miajadas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Miajadas41%
×Draw27%
Olivenza32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miajadas
1.34
Olivenza
1.16

Miajadas creates 16% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 93 away

creates per match

Miajadas
1.13
Olivenza
1.00

allows per match

Miajadas
1.32
Olivenza
1.56

finishing

Miajadas+0.00on par
Olivenza+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miajadas ↓

Olivenza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Miajadas or draw
68%
Miajadas or Olivenza
73%
Draw or Olivenza
59%

Winning margin

Miajadas wins by 2+
19%
Olivenza wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Miajadas 1+ goals
74%
Miajadas 2+ goals
39%
Miajadas 3+ goals
15%
Olivenza 1+ goals
69%
Olivenza 2+ goals
32%
Olivenza 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Miajadas (draw refunded)
56%
Olivenza (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miajadas at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Olivenza away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miajadas attack 1.13 + Olivenza defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.34

Olivenza attack 1.00 + Miajadas defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Miajadas scores more
41%
level
27%
Olivenza scores more
32%

Miajadas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Miajadas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Miajadas vs Olivenza

Olivenza beat Miajadas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Miajadas in Miajadas.