Miajadas 2–1 Moralo: Result & Stats

Miajadas

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Moralo

10/17/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 6Estadio Municipal de Miajadas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Miajadas33%

×Draw27%

Moralo41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiajadasExpected goals in this matchMoralo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.35

Miajadas

1.18

Moralo

1.35

Moralo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 111 away

1.13

creates per match

1.39

1.32

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Miajadas

1.13

Moralo

1.39

allows per match

Miajadas

1.32

Moralo

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miajadas+0.00on par

Moralo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miajadas ↓

Moralo →

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Miajadas or draw

59%

Miajadas or Moralo

73%

Draw or Moralo

67%

Winning margin

Miajadas wins by 2+

13%

Moralo wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Miajadas 1+ goals

69%

Miajadas 2+ goals

33%

Miajadas 3+ goals

12%

Moralo 1+ goals

74%

Moralo 2+ goals

39%

Moralo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Miajadas (draw refunded)

45%

Moralo (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Miajadas at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Moralo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Miajadas attack 1.13 + Moralo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Moralo attack 1.39 + Miajadas defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Miajadas scores more

33%

level

27%

Moralo scores more

41%

Moralo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Moralo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff