Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Miajadas vs Fuente Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Miajadas
Miajadas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fuente Cantos
Fuente Cantos
11/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 6Estadio Municipal de Miajadas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Miajadas44%
×Draw27%
Fuente Cantos30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miajadas
1.40
Fuente Cantos
1.10

Miajadas creates 27% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 61 away

creates per match

Miajadas
1.13
Fuente Cantos
0.89

allows per match

Miajadas
1.32
Fuente Cantos
1.67

finishing

Miajadas+0.00on par
Fuente Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miajadas ↓

Fuente Cantos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Miajadas or draw
70%
Miajadas or Fuente Cantos
73%
Draw or Fuente Cantos
56%

Winning margin

Miajadas wins by 2+
21%
Fuente Cantos wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Miajadas 1+ goals
75%
Miajadas 2+ goals
41%
Miajadas 3+ goals
17%
Fuente Cantos 1+ goals
67%
Fuente Cantos 2+ goals
30%
Fuente Cantos 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Miajadas (draw refunded)
60%
Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miajadas at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Fuente Cantos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miajadas attack 1.13 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fuente Cantos attack 0.89 + Miajadas defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Miajadas scores more
44%
level
27%
Fuente Cantos scores more
30%

Miajadas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Miajadas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Miajadas 2–1 Fuente Cantos

Miajadas beat Fuente Cantos 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Miajadas in Miajadas.