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Miajadas vs Don Álvaro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Miajadas
Miajadas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Don Álvaro
Don Álvaro
11/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 9Estadio Municipal de Miajadas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Miajadas49%
×Draw26%
Don Álvaro26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miajadas
1.51
Don Álvaro
1.02

Miajadas creates 48% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 47 away

creates per match

Miajadas
1.13
Don Álvaro
0.72

allows per match

Miajadas
1.32
Don Álvaro
1.89

finishing

Miajadas+0.00on par
Don Álvaro+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miajadas ↓

Don Álvaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Miajadas or draw
74%
Miajadas or Don Álvaro
74%
Draw or Don Álvaro
51%

Winning margin

Miajadas wins by 2+
25%
Don Álvaro wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Miajadas 1+ goals
78%
Miajadas 2+ goals
44%
Miajadas 3+ goals
19%
Don Álvaro 1+ goals
64%
Don Álvaro 2+ goals
27%
Don Álvaro 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Miajadas (draw refunded)
65%
Don Álvaro (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miajadas at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Don Álvaro away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.89 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miajadas attack 1.13 + Don Álvaro defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.51

Don Álvaro attack 0.72 + Miajadas defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Miajadas scores more
49%
level
26%
Don Álvaro scores more
26%

Miajadas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Miajadas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Miajadas vs Don Álvaro

Miajadas beat Don Álvaro 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Miajadas in Miajadas.