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Miajadas vs Diocesano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Miajadas
Miajadas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Diocesano
Diocesano
2/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 16Estadio Municipal de Miajadas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Miajadas34%
×Draw26%
Diocesano40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miajadas
1.25
Diocesano
1.37

Diocesano creates 10% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 93 away

creates per match

Miajadas
1.13
Diocesano
1.42

allows per match

Miajadas
1.32
Diocesano
1.38

finishing

Miajadas+0.00on par
Diocesano+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miajadas ↓

Diocesano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Miajadas or draw
60%
Miajadas or Diocesano
74%
Draw or Diocesano
66%

Winning margin

Miajadas wins by 2+
15%
Diocesano wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Miajadas 1+ goals
71%
Miajadas 2+ goals
36%
Miajadas 3+ goals
13%
Diocesano 1+ goals
75%
Diocesano 2+ goals
40%
Diocesano 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Miajadas (draw refunded)
46%
Diocesano (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miajadas at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Diocesano away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miajadas attack 1.13 + Diocesano defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Diocesano attack 1.42 + Miajadas defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Miajadas scores more
34%
level
26%
Diocesano scores more
40%

Diocesano at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Diocesano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Miajadas vs Diocesano

Miajadas and Diocesano drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Miajadas in Miajadas.