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Miajadas vs Cacereño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Miajadas
Miajadas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cacereño
Cacereño
11/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 4Estadio Municipal de Miajadas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Miajadas20%
×Draw26%
Cacereño54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miajadas
0.84
Cacereño
1.55

Cacereño creates 85% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 27 away

creates per match

Miajadas
1.13
Cacereño
1.78

allows per match

Miajadas
1.32
Cacereño
0.56

finishing

Miajadas+0.00on par
Cacereño+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miajadas ↓

Cacereño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Miajadas or draw
46%
Miajadas or Cacereño
74%
Draw or Cacereño
80%

Winning margin

Miajadas wins by 2+
6%
Cacereño wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Miajadas 1+ goals
57%
Miajadas 2+ goals
21%
Miajadas 3+ goals
5%
Cacereño 1+ goals
79%
Cacereño 2+ goals
46%
Cacereño 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Miajadas (draw refunded)
27%
Cacereño (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miajadas at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Cacereño away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.56 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miajadas attack 1.13 + Cacereño defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.84

Cacereño attack 1.78 + Miajadas defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Miajadas scores more
20%
level
26%
Cacereño scores more
54%

Cacereño at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cacereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Miajadas vs Cacereño

Miajadas and Cacereño drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Miajadas in Miajadas.