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Miajadas vs Atlético Pueblonuevo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Miajadas
Miajadas
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Atlético Pueblonuevo
Atlético Pueblonuevo
1/29/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 18Estadio Municipal de Miajadas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Miajadas50%
×Draw25%
Atlético Pueblonuevo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miajadas
1.62
Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.08

Miajadas creates 50% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 66 away

creates per match

Miajadas
1.13
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.85

allows per match

Miajadas
1.32
Atlético Pueblonuevo
2.11

finishing

Miajadas+0.00on par
Atlético Pueblonuevo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miajadas ↓

Atlético Pueblonuevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Miajadas or draw
75%
Miajadas or Atlético Pueblonuevo
75%
Draw or Atlético Pueblonuevo
50%

Winning margin

Miajadas wins by 2+
26%
Atlético Pueblonuevo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Miajadas 1+ goals
80%
Miajadas 2+ goals
48%
Miajadas 3+ goals
22%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Miajadas (draw refunded)
66%
Atlético Pueblonuevo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miajadas at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Atlético Pueblonuevo away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.11 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miajadas attack 1.13 + Atlético Pueblonuevo defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.62

Atlético Pueblonuevo attack 0.85 + Miajadas defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Miajadas scores more
50%
level
25%
Atlético Pueblonuevo scores more
25%

Miajadas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Miajadas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Miajadas 3–0 Atlético Pueblonuevo

Miajadas beat Atlético Pueblonuevo 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Miajadas in Miajadas.