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Mhlume Peacemakers vs Young Buffaloes — Premier League 2020

Mhlume Peacemakers
Mhlume Peacemakers
FT
0 – 4
Young Buffaloes
Young Buffaloes
5/5/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Tambankulu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mhlume Peacemakers16%
×Draw24%
Young Buffaloes61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mhlume Peacemakers
0.73
Young Buffaloes
1.70

Young Buffaloes creates 133% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 86 away

creates per match

Mhlume Peacemakers
0.69
Young Buffaloes
1.86

allows per match

Mhlume Peacemakers
1.54
Young Buffaloes
0.78

finishing

Mhlume Peacemakers+0.00on par
Young Buffaloes+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mhlume Peacemakers ↓

Young Buffaloes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mhlume Peacemakers or draw
39%
Mhlume Peacemakers or Young Buffaloes
76%
Draw or Young Buffaloes
84%

Winning margin

Mhlume Peacemakers wins by 2+
4%
Young Buffaloes wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Mhlume Peacemakers 1+ goals
52%
Mhlume Peacemakers 2+ goals
17%
Mhlume Peacemakers 3+ goals
4%
Young Buffaloes 1+ goals
82%
Young Buffaloes 2+ goals
51%
Young Buffaloes 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Mhlume Peacemakers (draw refunded)
21%
Young Buffaloes (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mhlume Peacemakers at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Young Buffaloes away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mhlume Peacemakers attack 0.69 + Young Buffaloes defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.73

Young Buffaloes attack 1.86 + Mhlume Peacemakers defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Mhlume Peacemakers scores more
16%
level
24%
Young Buffaloes scores more
61%

Young Buffaloes at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Young Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mhlume Peacemakers vs Young Buffaloes

Young Buffaloes beat Mhlume Peacemakers 4-0 in Premier League on May 5, 2021.

The match was played at Tambankulu Stadium in Tambankulu.