Mhlume Peacemakers 1–2 Royal Leopards

Mhlume Peacemakers

FT

1 – 2

Royal Leopards

5/1/2021

Premier League · Round 9Tambankulu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mhlume Peacemakers18%

×Draw24%

Royal Leopards58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mhlume PeacemakersExpected goals in this matchRoyal Leopards

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.71

Mhlume Peacemakers

0.82

Royal Leopards

1.71

Royal Leopards creates 109% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 85 away

0.69

creates per match

1.88

1.54

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Mhlume Peacemakers

0.69

Royal Leopards

1.88

allows per match

Mhlume Peacemakers

1.54

Royal Leopards

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mhlume Peacemakers+0.00on par

Royal Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mhlume Peacemakers ↓

Royal Leopards →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–114%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mhlume Peacemakers or draw

42%

Mhlume Peacemakers or Royal Leopards

76%

Draw or Royal Leopards

82%

Winning margin

Mhlume Peacemakers wins by 2+

5%

Royal Leopards wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Mhlume Peacemakers 1+ goals

56%

Mhlume Peacemakers 2+ goals

20%

Mhlume Peacemakers 3+ goals

5%

Royal Leopards 1+ goals

82%

Royal Leopards 2+ goals

51%

Royal Leopards 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Mhlume Peacemakers (draw refunded)

23%

Royal Leopards (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mhlume Peacemakers at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Royal Leopards away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.96 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mhlume Peacemakers attack 0.69 + Royal Leopards defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.82

Royal Leopards attack 1.88 + Mhlume Peacemakers defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mhlume Peacemakers scores more

18%

level

24%

Royal Leopards scores more

58%

Royal Leopards at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Royal Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff