Mhlume Peacemakers 0–1 Manzini Sea Birds

Mhlume Peacemakers

FT

0 – 1

Manzini Sea Birds

6/13/2021

Premier League · Round 15Tambankulu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mhlume Peacemakers31%

×Draw27%

Manzini Sea Birds42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mhlume PeacemakersExpected goals in this matchManzini Sea Birds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.34

Mhlume Peacemakers

1.10

Manzini Sea Birds

1.34

Manzini Sea Birds creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 85 away

0.69

creates per match

1.14

1.54

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Mhlume Peacemakers

0.69

Manzini Sea Birds

1.14

allows per match

Mhlume Peacemakers

1.54

Manzini Sea Birds

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mhlume Peacemakers+0.00on par

Manzini Sea Birds+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mhlume Peacemakers ↓

Manzini Sea Birds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mhlume Peacemakers or draw

58%

Mhlume Peacemakers or Manzini Sea Birds

73%

Draw or Manzini Sea Birds

69%

Winning margin

Mhlume Peacemakers wins by 2+

12%

Manzini Sea Birds wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Mhlume Peacemakers 1+ goals

67%

Mhlume Peacemakers 2+ goals

30%

Mhlume Peacemakers 3+ goals

10%

Manzini Sea Birds 1+ goals

74%

Manzini Sea Birds 2+ goals

39%

Manzini Sea Birds 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Mhlume Peacemakers (draw refunded)

42%

Manzini Sea Birds (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mhlume Peacemakers at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Manzini Sea Birds away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.51 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mhlume Peacemakers attack 0.69 + Manzini Sea Birds defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.10

Manzini Sea Birds attack 1.14 + Mhlume Peacemakers defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mhlume Peacemakers scores more

31%

level

27%

Manzini Sea Birds scores more

42%

Manzini Sea Birds at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Manzini Sea Birds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff