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Mhlume Peacemakers vs Malanti Chiefs — Premier League 2020

Mhlume Peacemakers
Mhlume Peacemakers
FT
1 – 1
Malanti Chiefs
Malanti Chiefs
5/16/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Tambankulu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mhlume Peacemakers37%
×Draw27%
Malanti Chiefs36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mhlume Peacemakers
1.23
Malanti Chiefs
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

creates per match

Mhlume Peacemakers
0.69
Malanti Chiefs
0.85

allows per match

Mhlume Peacemakers
1.54
Malanti Chiefs
1.78

finishing

Mhlume Peacemakers+0.00on par
Malanti Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mhlume Peacemakers ↓

Malanti Chiefs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mhlume Peacemakers or draw
64%
Mhlume Peacemakers or Malanti Chiefs
73%
Draw or Malanti Chiefs
63%

Winning margin

Mhlume Peacemakers wins by 2+
16%
Malanti Chiefs wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mhlume Peacemakers 1+ goals
71%
Mhlume Peacemakers 2+ goals
35%
Mhlume Peacemakers 3+ goals
13%
Malanti Chiefs 1+ goals
70%
Malanti Chiefs 2+ goals
34%
Malanti Chiefs 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mhlume Peacemakers (draw refunded)
51%
Malanti Chiefs (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mhlume Peacemakers at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Malanti Chiefs away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.78 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mhlume Peacemakers attack 0.69 + Malanti Chiefs defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.23

Malanti Chiefs attack 0.85 + Mhlume Peacemakers defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mhlume Peacemakers scores more
37%
level
27%
Malanti Chiefs scores more
36%

Mhlume Peacemakers at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mhlume Peacemakers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Mhlume Peacemakers 1–1 Malanti Chiefs

Mhlume Peacemakers and Malanti Chiefs drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Tambankulu Stadium in Tambankulu.