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MH Nakhonsi vs Lamphun Warrior — League Cup 2021

MH Nakhonsi
MH Nakhonsi
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrior
12/6/2023League CupLeague Cup · 1st RoundNakhon Si Thammarat Provincial Administrative Organization Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

MH Nakhonsi15%
×Draw19%
Lamphun Warrior66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MH Nakhonsi
1.00
Lamphun Warrior
2.30

Lamphun Warrior creates 130% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

MH Nakhonsi
1.60
Lamphun Warrior
2.80

allows per match

MH Nakhonsi
1.80
Lamphun Warrior
0.40

finishing

MH Nakhonsi+0.00on par
Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MH Nakhonsi ↓

Lamphun Warrior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

MH Nakhonsi or draw
34%
MH Nakhonsi or Lamphun Warrior
81%
Draw or Lamphun Warrior
85%

Winning margin

MH Nakhonsi wins by 2+
5%
Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

MH Nakhonsi 1+ goals
63%
MH Nakhonsi 2+ goals
26%
MH Nakhonsi 3+ goals
8%
Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
90%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
67%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

MH Nakhonsi (draw refunded)
19%
Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MH Nakhonsi at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Lamphun Warrior away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MH Nakhonsi attack 1.60 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.00

Lamphun Warrior attack 2.80 + MH Nakhonsi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

MH Nakhonsi scores more
15%
level
19%
Lamphun Warrior scores more
66%

Lamphun Warrior at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: MH Nakhonsi 0–3 Lamphun Warrior

Lamphun Warrior beat MH Nakhonsi 3-0 in League Cup on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Nakhon Si Thammarat Provincial Administrative Organization Stadium in Nakhon Si Thammarat.