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MH Nakhonsi vs Cha Choeng Sao — League Cup 2021

MH Nakhonsi
MH Nakhonsi
FT
3 – 1
Cha Choeng Sao
Cha Choeng Sao
10/25/2023League CupLeague Cup · Play-offsNakhon Si Thammarat Provincial Administrative Organization Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

MH Nakhonsi29%
×Draw24%
Cha Choeng Sao47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MH Nakhonsi
1.30
Cha Choeng Sao
1.73

Cha Choeng Sao creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

MH Nakhonsi
1.60
Cha Choeng Sao
1.67

allows per match

MH Nakhonsi
1.80
Cha Choeng Sao
1.00

finishing

MH Nakhonsi+0.00on par
Cha Choeng Sao+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MH Nakhonsi ↓

Cha Choeng Sao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

MH Nakhonsi or draw
53%
MH Nakhonsi or Cha Choeng Sao
76%
Draw or Cha Choeng Sao
71%

Winning margin

MH Nakhonsi wins by 2+
12%
Cha Choeng Sao wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

MH Nakhonsi 1+ goals
73%
MH Nakhonsi 2+ goals
37%
MH Nakhonsi 3+ goals
14%
Cha Choeng Sao 1+ goals
82%
Cha Choeng Sao 2+ goals
52%
Cha Choeng Sao 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

MH Nakhonsi (draw refunded)
38%
Cha Choeng Sao (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MH Nakhonsi at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Cha Choeng Sao away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MH Nakhonsi attack 1.60 + Cha Choeng Sao defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Cha Choeng Sao attack 1.67 + MH Nakhonsi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

MH Nakhonsi scores more
29%
level
24%
Cha Choeng Sao scores more
47%

Cha Choeng Sao at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cha Choeng Sao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MH Nakhonsi vs Cha Choeng Sao

MH Nakhonsi beat Cha Choeng Sao 3-1 in League Cup on October 25, 2023.

The match was played at Nakhon Si Thammarat Provincial Administrative Organization Stadium in Nakhon Si Thammarat.