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Mgarr United vs Victoria Wanderers — FA Trophy 2020

Mgarr United
Mgarr United
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Victoria Wanderers
Victoria Wanderers
Mahop 43', 22'
Emmanuel 60'
Cordina 17'
Igor Henrique 8'
12/7/2024FA TrophyFA Trophy · Preliminary RoundLuxol Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mgarr United43%
×Draw21%
Victoria Wanderers36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mgarr United
2.00
Victoria Wanderers
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Mgarr United
1.00
Victoria Wanderers
1.00

allows per match

Mgarr United
2.67
Victoria Wanderers
3.00

finishing

Mgarr United+0.00on par
Victoria Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mgarr United ↓

Victoria Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Mgarr United or draw
64%
Mgarr United or Victoria Wanderers
79%
Draw or Victoria Wanderers
57%

Winning margin

Mgarr United wins by 2+
24%
Victoria Wanderers wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Mgarr United 1+ goals
86%
Mgarr United 2+ goals
59%
Mgarr United 3+ goals
32%
Victoria Wanderers 1+ goals
84%
Victoria Wanderers 2+ goals
54%
Victoria Wanderers 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Mgarr United (draw refunded)
54%
Victoria Wanderers (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mgarr United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Victoria Wanderers away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mgarr United attack 1.00 + Victoria Wanderers defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Victoria Wanderers attack 1.00 + Mgarr United defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mgarr United scores more
43%
level
21%
Victoria Wanderers scores more
36%

Mgarr United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mgarr United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
Igor Henrique
17'
Cordina
22'
Mahop
43'
Mahop
60'
Emmanuel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Trophy: Mgarr United 2–3 Victoria Wanderers

Victoria Wanderers beat Mgarr United 3-2 in FA Trophy on December 7, 2024.

Goals: Igor Henrique (8'), Cordina (17'), Mahop (22', 43'), Emmanuel (60').

The match was played at Luxol Sports Ground in Pembroke.