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MFM vs Lobi Stars — NPFL 2019

MFM
MFM
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lobi Stars
Lobi Stars
I. Atobasi 8'
5/23/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 22Agege Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

MFM55%
×Draw29%
Lobi Stars16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MFM
1.32
Lobi Stars
0.58

MFM creates 128% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 113 away

creates per match

MFM
1.16
Lobi Stars
0.53

allows per match

MFM
0.63
Lobi Stars
1.48

finishing

MFM+0.00on par
Lobi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MFM ↓

Lobi Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

MFM or draw
84%
MFM or Lobi Stars
71%
Draw or Lobi Stars
45%

Winning margin

MFM wins by 2+
26%
Lobi Stars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

MFM 1+ goals
73%
MFM 2+ goals
38%
MFM 3+ goals
15%
Lobi Stars 1+ goals
44%
Lobi Stars 2+ goals
12%
Lobi Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

MFM (draw refunded)
77%
Lobi Stars (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MFM at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.63 · 62 matches

Lobi Stars away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.48 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MFM attack 1.16 + Lobi Stars defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.32

Lobi Stars attack 0.53 + MFM defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

MFM scores more
55%
level
29%
Lobi Stars scores more
16%

MFM at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "MFM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
I. Atobasi
43'
O. Chukwuka
57'
S. B. Nwabali
79'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MFM vs Lobi Stars

MFM beat Lobi Stars 1-0 in NPFL on May 23, 2021.

Goals: I. Atobasi (8').

The match was played at Agege Stadium in Lagos.