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MFM vs Kwara United — NPFL 2019

MFM
MFM
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Kwara United
Kwara United
3/6/2022NPFLNPFL · Round 17Teslim Balogun Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

MFM55%
×Draw28%
Kwara United17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MFM
1.35
Kwara United
0.60

MFM creates 125% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 128 away

creates per match

MFM
1.16
Kwara United
0.58

allows per match

MFM
0.63
Kwara United
1.55

finishing

MFM+0.00on par
Kwara United+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MFM ↓

Kwara United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

MFM or draw
83%
MFM or Kwara United
72%
Draw or Kwara United
45%

Winning margin

MFM wins by 2+
27%
Kwara United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

MFM 1+ goals
74%
MFM 2+ goals
39%
MFM 3+ goals
15%
Kwara United 1+ goals
45%
Kwara United 2+ goals
12%
Kwara United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

MFM (draw refunded)
77%
Kwara United (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MFM at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.63 · 62 matches

Kwara United away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MFM attack 1.16 + Kwara United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.35

Kwara United attack 0.58 + MFM defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

MFM scores more
55%
level
28%
Kwara United scores more
17%

MFM at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "MFM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: MFM 1–2 Kwara United

Kwara United beat MFM 2-1 in NPFL on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Teslim Balogun Stadium in Lagos.