MFM 1–0 Katsina United: Result & Stats | NPFL

MFM

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Katsina United

2/16/2022

NPFL · Round 13Agege Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

MFM59%

×Draw28%

Katsina United13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MFMExpected goals in this matchKatsina United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.46

MFM

1.34

Katsina United

0.46

MFM creates 191% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 118 away

1.16

creates per match

0.29

0.63

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

MFM

1.16

Katsina United

0.29

allows per match

MFM

0.63

Katsina United

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MFM+0.00on par

Katsina United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MFM ↓

Katsina United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

MFM or draw

87%

MFM or Katsina United

72%

Draw or Katsina United

41%

Winning margin

MFM wins by 2+

29%

Katsina United wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

MFM 1+ goals

74%

MFM 2+ goals

39%

MFM 3+ goals

15%

Katsina United 1+ goals

37%

Katsina United 2+ goals

8%

Katsina United 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

MFM (draw refunded)

82%

Katsina United (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MFM at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.63 · 62 matches

Katsina United away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.52 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MFM attack 1.16 + Katsina United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.34

Katsina United attack 0.29 + MFM defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

MFM scores more

59%

level

28%

Katsina United scores more

13%

MFM at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "MFM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff