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MFM vs Kano Pillars — NPFL 2019

MFM
MFM
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
5/15/2022NPFLNPFL · Round 28Dipo Dina International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

MFM54%
×Draw28%
Kano Pillars18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MFM
1.35
Kano Pillars
0.64

MFM creates 111% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 121 away

creates per match

MFM
1.16
Kano Pillars
0.64

allows per match

MFM
0.63
Kano Pillars
1.54

finishing

MFM+0.00on par
Kano Pillars+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MFM ↓

Kano Pillars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

MFM or draw
82%
MFM or Kano Pillars
72%
Draw or Kano Pillars
46%

Winning margin

MFM wins by 2+
26%
Kano Pillars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

MFM 1+ goals
74%
MFM 2+ goals
39%
MFM 3+ goals
15%
Kano Pillars 1+ goals
47%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
14%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

MFM (draw refunded)
75%
Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MFM at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.63 · 62 matches

Kano Pillars away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.54 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MFM attack 1.16 + Kano Pillars defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.35

Kano Pillars attack 0.64 + MFM defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

MFM scores more
54%
level
28%
Kano Pillars scores more
18%

MFM at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "MFM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: MFM 2–1 Kano Pillars

MFM beat Kano Pillars 2-1 in NPFL on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Dipo Dina International Stadium in Ijebu Ode.