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MFM vs Heartland — NPFL 2019

MFM
MFM
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Heartland
Heartland
2/7/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 9Agege Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

MFM55%
×Draw28%
Heartland16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MFM
1.34
Heartland
0.58

MFM creates 131% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 100 away

creates per match

MFM
1.16
Heartland
0.53

allows per match

MFM
0.63
Heartland
1.52

finishing

MFM+0.00on par
Heartland+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MFM ↓

Heartland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

MFM or draw
84%
MFM or Heartland
72%
Draw or Heartland
45%

Winning margin

MFM wins by 2+
27%
Heartland wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

MFM 1+ goals
74%
MFM 2+ goals
39%
MFM 3+ goals
15%
Heartland 1+ goals
44%
Heartland 2+ goals
12%
Heartland 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

MFM (draw refunded)
77%
Heartland (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MFM at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.63 · 62 matches

Heartland away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MFM attack 1.16 + Heartland defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.34

Heartland attack 0.53 + MFM defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

MFM scores more
55%
level
28%
Heartland scores more
16%

MFM at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "MFM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MFM 1 – 2 Heartland

Heartland beat MFM 2-1 in NPFL on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Agege Stadium in Lagos.