MFM 3–1 Gombe United: Result & Stats | NPFL

MFM

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Gombe United

5/28/2022

NPFL · Round 30Dipo Dina International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

MFM63%

×Draw25%

Gombe United12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MFMExpected goals in this matchGombe United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.49

MFM

1.52

Gombe United

0.49

MFM creates 210% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 58 away

1.16

creates per match

0.36

0.63

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

MFM

1.16

Gombe United

0.36

allows per match

MFM

0.63

Gombe United

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MFM+0.00on par

Gombe United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MFM ↓

Gombe United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

MFM or draw

88%

MFM or Gombe United

75%

Draw or Gombe United

37%

Winning margin

MFM wins by 2+

34%

Gombe United wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

MFM 1+ goals

78%

MFM 2+ goals

45%

MFM 3+ goals

20%

Gombe United 1+ goals

39%

Gombe United 2+ goals

9%

Gombe United 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

MFM (draw refunded)

84%

Gombe United (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MFM at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.63 · 62 matches

Gombe United away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.88 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MFM attack 1.16 + Gombe United defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.52

Gombe United attack 0.36 + MFM defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

MFM scores more

63%

level

25%

Gombe United scores more

12%

MFM at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "MFM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff