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MFM vs Enyimba — NPFL 2019

MFM
MFM
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Enyimba
Enyimba
6/19/2022NPFLNPFL · Round 34Agege Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

MFM48%
×Draw31%
Enyimba21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MFM
1.19
Enyimba
0.69

MFM creates 72% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 130 away

creates per match

MFM
1.16
Enyimba
0.74

allows per match

MFM
0.63
Enyimba
1.22

finishing

MFM+0.00on par
Enyimba+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MFM ↓

Enyimba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

MFM or draw
79%
MFM or Enyimba
69%
Draw or Enyimba
52%

Winning margin

MFM wins by 2+
21%
Enyimba wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

MFM 1+ goals
70%
MFM 2+ goals
33%
MFM 3+ goals
12%
Enyimba 1+ goals
50%
Enyimba 2+ goals
15%
Enyimba 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

MFM (draw refunded)
69%
Enyimba (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MFM at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.63 · 62 matches

Enyimba away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MFM attack 1.16 + Enyimba defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Enyimba attack 0.74 + MFM defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

MFM scores more
48%
level
31%
Enyimba scores more
21%

MFM at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "MFM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: MFM 2–1 Enyimba

MFM beat Enyimba 2-1 in NPFL on June 19, 2022.

The match was played at Agege Stadium in Lagos.