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Mezőkövesd II vs Tiszafuredi VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Mezőkövesd II
Mezőkövesd II
FT
0 – 1
Tiszafuredi VSE
Tiszafuredi VSE
5/23/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 37Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mezőkövesd II31%
×Draw23%
Tiszafuredi VSE46%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mezőkövesd II
1.50
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.85

Tiszafuredi VSE creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 102 away

creates per match

Mezőkövesd II
1.37
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.45

allows per match

Mezőkövesd II
2.26
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.64

finishing

Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par
Tiszafuredi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mezőkövesd II ↓

Tiszafuredi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Mezőkövesd II or draw
54%
Mezőkövesd II or Tiszafuredi VSE
77%
Draw or Tiszafuredi VSE
69%

Winning margin

Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+
15%
Tiszafuredi VSE wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals
78%
Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals
44%
Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals
19%
Tiszafuredi VSE 1+ goals
84%
Tiszafuredi VSE 2+ goals
55%
Tiszafuredi VSE 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)
41%
Tiszafuredi VSE (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mezőkövesd II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Tiszafuredi VSE away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.64 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mezőkövesd II attack 1.37 + Tiszafuredi VSE defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tiszafuredi VSE attack 1.45 + Mezőkövesd II defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mezőkövesd II scores more
31%
level
23%
Tiszafuredi VSE scores more
46%

Tiszafuredi VSE at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tiszafuredi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mezőkövesd II vs Tiszafuredi VSE

Tiszafuredi VSE beat Mezőkövesd II 1-0 in NB III - Northeast on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Városi Stadion in Mezőkövesd.