Mezőkövesd II 5–2 Sajóbábony Vegyész

Mezőkövesd II

FT

5 – 2

Sajóbábony Vegyész

11/11/2020

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 13Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mezőkövesd II57%

×Draw19%

Sajóbábony Vegyész24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mezőkövesd IIExpected goals in this matchSajóbábony Vegyész

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.57

Mezőkövesd II

2.50

Sajóbábony Vegyész

1.57

Mezőkövesd II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.37

creates per match

0.89

2.26

allows per match

3.63

creates per match

Mezőkövesd II

1.37

Sajóbábony Vegyész

0.89

allows per match

Mezőkövesd II

2.26

Sajóbábony Vegyész

3.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par

Sajóbábony Vegyész+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mezőkövesd II ↓

Sajóbábony Vegyész →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Mezőkövesd II or draw

76%

Mezőkövesd II or Sajóbábony Vegyész

81%

Draw or Sajóbábony Vegyész

43%

Winning margin

Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+

37%

Sajóbábony Vegyész wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals

92%

Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals

71%

Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals

45%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 1+ goals

79%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 2+ goals

46%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)

71%

Sajóbábony Vegyész (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mezőkövesd II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Sajóbábony Vegyész away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mezőkövesd II attack 1.37 + Sajóbábony Vegyész defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.50

Sajóbábony Vegyész attack 0.89 + Mezőkövesd II defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mezőkövesd II scores more

57%

level

19%

Sajóbábony Vegyész scores more

24%

Mezőkövesd II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mezőkövesd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff