Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mezőkövesd II vs Eger — NB III - Northeast 2019

Mezőkövesd II
Mezőkövesd II
FT
1 – 2
Eger
Eger
11/29/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 20Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mezőkövesd II36%
×Draw23%
Eger41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mezőkövesd II
1.63
Eger
1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 110 away

creates per match

Mezőkövesd II
1.37
Eger
1.23

allows per match

Mezőkövesd II
2.26
Eger
1.89

finishing

Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par
Eger+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mezőkövesd II ↓

Eger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Mezőkövesd II or draw
59%
Mezőkövesd II or Eger
77%
Draw or Eger
64%

Winning margin

Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+
18%
Eger wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals
80%
Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals
48%
Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals
22%
Eger 1+ goals
82%
Eger 2+ goals
52%
Eger 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)
47%
Eger (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mezőkövesd II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Eger away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.89 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mezőkövesd II attack 1.37 + Eger defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.63

Eger attack 1.23 + Mezőkövesd II defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mezőkövesd II scores more
36%
level
23%
Eger scores more
41%

Eger at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Eger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mezőkövesd II vs Eger

Eger beat Mezőkövesd II 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Városi Stadion in Mezőkövesd.