Meyrin 4–1 Yverdon Sport II: Result & Stats

Meyrin

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Yverdon Sport II

3/8/2025

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Stade des Arbères

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Meyrin50%

×Draw22%

Yverdon Sport II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MeyrinExpected goals in this matchYverdon Sport II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.38

Meyrin

1.94

Yverdon Sport II

1.38

Meyrin creates 41% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 30 away

1.85

creates per match

1.47

1.29

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Meyrin

1.85

Yverdon Sport II

1.47

allows per match

Meyrin

1.29

Yverdon Sport II

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meyrin+0.00on par

Yverdon Sport II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meyrin ↓

Yverdon Sport II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Meyrin or draw

73%

Meyrin or Yverdon Sport II

78%

Draw or Yverdon Sport II

50%

Winning margin

Meyrin wins by 2+

29%

Yverdon Sport II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Meyrin 1+ goals

86%

Meyrin 2+ goals

58%

Meyrin 3+ goals

30%

Yverdon Sport II 1+ goals

75%

Yverdon Sport II 2+ goals

40%

Yverdon Sport II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Meyrin (draw refunded)

65%

Yverdon Sport II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meyrin at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 86 matches

Yverdon Sport II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meyrin attack 1.85 + Yverdon Sport II defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.94

Yverdon Sport II attack 1.47 + Meyrin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Meyrin scores more

50%

level

22%

Yverdon Sport II scores more

27%

Meyrin at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Meyrin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff