Meyrin 1–1 Terre Sainte: Result & Stats

Meyrin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Terre Sainte

3/2/2024

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Stade des Arbères

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Meyrin54%

×Draw22%

Terre Sainte24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MeyrinExpected goals in this matchTerre Sainte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.26

Meyrin

2.00

Terre Sainte

1.26

Meyrin creates 59% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 57 away

1.85

creates per match

1.23

1.29

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Meyrin

1.85

Terre Sainte

1.23

allows per match

Meyrin

1.29

Terre Sainte

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meyrin+0.00on par

Terre Sainte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meyrin ↓

Terre Sainte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Meyrin or draw

76%

Meyrin or Terre Sainte

78%

Draw or Terre Sainte

46%

Winning margin

Meyrin wins by 2+

32%

Terre Sainte wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Meyrin 1+ goals

86%

Meyrin 2+ goals

59%

Meyrin 3+ goals

32%

Terre Sainte 1+ goals

72%

Terre Sainte 2+ goals

36%

Terre Sainte 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Meyrin (draw refunded)

69%

Terre Sainte (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meyrin at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 86 matches

Terre Sainte away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meyrin attack 1.85 + Terre Sainte defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.00

Terre Sainte attack 1.23 + Meyrin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Meyrin scores more

54%

level

22%

Terre Sainte scores more

24%

Meyrin at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Meyrin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff