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Meyrin vs Sion II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Meyrin
Meyrin
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sion II
Sion II
5/24/20251. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Stade des Arbères

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Meyrin46%
×Draw23%
Sion II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meyrin
1.79
Sion II
1.45

Meyrin creates 23% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 60 away

creates per match

Meyrin
1.85
Sion II
1.60

allows per match

Meyrin
1.29
Sion II
1.72

finishing

Meyrin+0.00on par
Sion II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meyrin ↓

Sion II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Meyrin or draw
69%
Meyrin or Sion II
77%
Draw or Sion II
54%

Winning margin

Meyrin wins by 2+
25%
Sion II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Meyrin 1+ goals
83%
Meyrin 2+ goals
53%
Meyrin 3+ goals
26%
Sion II 1+ goals
77%
Sion II 2+ goals
42%
Sion II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Meyrin (draw refunded)
59%
Sion II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meyrin at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 86 matches

Sion II away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.72 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meyrin attack 1.85 + Sion II defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sion II attack 1.60 + Meyrin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Meyrin scores more
46%
level
23%
Sion II scores more
31%

Meyrin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Meyrin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meyrin vs Sion II

Meyrin beat Sion II 4-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stade des Arbères in Meyrin.