Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Meyrin vs FC Basel 1893 — Schweizer Cup 2019

Meyrin
Meyrin
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
9/14/2019Schweizer CupSchweizer Cup · 16th FinalsStade des Arbères

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Meyrin1%
×Draw4%
FC Basel 189395%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meyrin
0.50
FC Basel 1893
4.45

FC Basel 1893 creates 790% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 19 away

creates per match

Meyrin
0.00
FC Basel 1893
3.89

allows per match

Meyrin
5.00
FC Basel 1893
1.00

finishing

Meyrin+0.00on par
FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meyrin ↓

FC Basel 1893 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–28%
0–312%
0–414%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–36%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–21%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (14%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Meyrin or draw
5%
Meyrin or FC Basel 1893
96%
Draw or FC Basel 1893
99%

Winning margin

Meyrin wins by 2+
0%
FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
85%

Team goals

Meyrin 1+ goals
39%
Meyrin 2+ goals
9%
Meyrin 3+ goals
1%
FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
99%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
92%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
79%

Draw no bet

Meyrin (draw refunded)
1%
FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meyrin at home — creates 0.00, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 3.89, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meyrin attack 0.00 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

FC Basel 1893 attack 3.89 + Meyrin defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 4.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 95%?"

Meyrin scores more
1%
level
4%
FC Basel 1893 scores more
95%

FC Basel 1893 at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Schweizer Cup: Meyrin 0–3 FC Basel 1893

FC Basel 1893 beat Meyrin 3-0 in Schweizer Cup on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stade des Arbères in Meyrin.