Mexico 1–1 Venezuela: Result & Stats | Copa America

Mexico

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Venezuela

Jesús Corona 80'

J. Velázquez 10'

6/14/2016

Copa America · Group Stage - 3NRG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mexico48%

×Draw30%

Venezuela22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MexicoExpected goals in this matchVenezuela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.74

Mexico

1.24

Venezuela

0.74

Mexico creates 68% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.40

creates per match

1.08

0.40

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Mexico

1.40

Venezuela

1.08

allows per match

Mexico

0.40

Venezuela

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mexico+0.00on par

Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mexico ↓

Venezuela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Mexico or draw

78%

Mexico or Venezuela

70%

Draw or Venezuela

52%

Winning margin

Mexico wins by 2+

22%

Venezuela wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Mexico 1+ goals

71%

Mexico 2+ goals

35%

Mexico 3+ goals

13%

Venezuela 1+ goals

52%

Venezuela 2+ goals

17%

Venezuela 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Mexico (draw refunded)

68%

Venezuela (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mexico at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Venezuela away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mexico attack 1.40 + Venezuela defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.24

Venezuela attack 1.08 + Mexico defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mexico scores more

48%

level

30%

Venezuela scores more

22%

Mexico at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mexico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

H. Herrera

Mexico · M

8.2

Match Events

4'

Alexander Gonzalez

10'

J. Velázquez↳ C. Santos

18'

Jesús Corona← J. Aquino

45'

Héctor Herrera

46'

M. Layún← Jorge Torres

52'

Christian Santos

60'

Jesús Molina

65'

J. Martínez← Y. Del Valle

68'

J. Hernández← J. Molina

69'

Adalberto Peñaranda

78'

S. Rondón← C. Santos

80'

Jesús Corona↳ M. Layún

83'

R. Otero← A. Guerra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MexicoVenezuela

Overview

67%Possession33%

25Total Shots10

5Corners3

13Fouls19

Shots

25Total Shots10

8On Target6

8Off Target3

9Blocked1

19Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

67%Possession33%

456Total Passes231

381Accurate Passes155

84%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

5Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls19

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2