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Mexico vs USA — Friendlies 2026

Mexico
Mexico
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
USA
USA
10/16/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Estadio AKRON

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Mexico55%
×Draw26%
USA19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mexico
1.52
USA
0.79

Mexico creates 92% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 10 away

creates per match

Mexico
1.64
USA
0.50

allows per match

Mexico
1.07
USA
1.40

finishing

Mexico+0.00on par
USA+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mexico ↓

USA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mexico or draw
81%
Mexico or USA
74%
Draw or USA
45%

Winning margin

Mexico wins by 2+
28%
USA wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mexico 1+ goals
78%
Mexico 2+ goals
45%
Mexico 3+ goals
20%
USA 1+ goals
55%
USA 2+ goals
19%
USA 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mexico (draw refunded)
74%
USA (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mexico at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 56 matches

USA away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mexico attack 1.64 + USA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

USA attack 0.50 + Mexico defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mexico scores more
55%
level
26%
USA scores more
19%

Mexico at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mexico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mexico 2 – 0 USA

Mexico beat USA 2-0 in Friendlies on October 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio AKRON in Zapopan.