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Mexico vs Serbia — Friendlies 2026

Mexico
Mexico
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Serbia
Serbia
L. Chavez 90'
A. Avdic 72' (OG)
R. Jimenez 57'
S. Bukinac 45' (OG)
J. Vasquez 34'
P. Stanic 19'
6/5/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalEstadio Nemesio Diez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mexico45%
×Draw25%
Serbia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mexico
1.52
Serbia
1.17

Mexico creates 30% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mexico
1.64
Serbia
1.24

allows per match

Mexico
1.09
Serbia
1.41

finishing

Mexico+0.00on par
Serbia+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mexico ↓

Serbia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mexico or draw
71%
Mexico or Serbia
75%
Draw or Serbia
55%

Winning margin

Mexico wins by 2+
23%
Serbia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mexico 1+ goals
78%
Mexico 2+ goals
45%
Mexico 3+ goals
20%
Serbia 1+ goals
69%
Serbia 2+ goals
33%
Serbia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mexico (draw refunded)
61%
Serbia (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mexico at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 58 matches

Serbia away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mexico attack 1.64 + Serbia defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Serbia attack 1.24 + Mexico defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mexico scores more
45%
level
25%
Serbia scores more
29%

Mexico at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mexico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
L. ChavezMexicoMexico · M
7.7

Match Events

16'
Vanja Dragojević
19'
P. Stanic
34'
J. Vasquez↳ B. Gutierrez
43'
Álvaro Fidalgo
45'
S. BukinacOwn goal
46'
E. Alvarez← E. Lira
46'
V. Birmancevic← L. Randjelovic
46'
M. Ivanovic← N. Stulic
46'
D. Zukic← P. Stanic
57'
R. Jimenez
58'
G. Martinez← B. Gutierrez
58'
A. Vega← J. Quinones
59'
L. Chavez← R. Jimenez
59'
I. Reyes← C. Montes
59'
G. Mora← A. Fidalgo
61'
V. Ilic← F. Stankovic
61'
A. Avdic← S. Bukinac
61'
N. Petrovic← V. Dragojevic
65'
Edson Álvarez
68'
Adem Avdić
72'
L. Romo← J. Gallardo
72'
A. AvdicOwn goal
73'
M. Chavez Garcia← J. Vasquez
73'
O. Pineda← R. Alvarado
75'
P. Petrovic← N. Simic
75'
V. Kostov← V. Djurdjevic
75'
O. Mimovic← A. Stankovic
79'
M. Milikic← S. Erakovic
79'
K. Nedeljkovic← V. Lucic
90'
L. Chavez

Possession

67%Mexico

Shots

17Mexico

Pass accuracy

53%Mexico

Statistics

MexicoSerbia
Overview
67%Possession33%
17Total Shots3
6Corners1
12Fouls5
Shots
17Total Shots3
7On Target1
8Off Target2
2Blocked0
12Inside Box3
5Outside Box0
Passing
67%Possession33%
564Total Passes283
522Accurate Passes239
93%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls5
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Mexico 5 – 1 Serbia

Mexico beat Serbia 5-1 in Friendlies on June 5, 2026.

Goals: P. Stanic (19'), J. Vasquez (34'), S. Bukinac (45' o.g.), R. Jimenez (57'), A. Avdic (72' o.g.), L. Chavez (90').

Mexico controlled possession (67%) and registered 17 shots to 3.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Diez in Toluca.