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Mexico vs Iraq — Friendlies 2026

Mexico
Mexico
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Iraq
Iraq
U. Antuna 90+2' (pen)
J. Gallardo 67'
R. Funes Mori 48'
A. Vega 4'
11/9/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Estadi Municipal de Montilivi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Mexico44%
×Draw28%
Iraq27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mexico
1.28
Iraq
0.94

Mexico creates 36% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 14 away

creates per match

Mexico
1.64
Iraq
0.79

allows per match

Mexico
1.09
Iraq
0.93

finishing

Mexico+0.00on par
Iraq+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mexico ↓

Iraq →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mexico or draw
73%
Mexico or Iraq
72%
Draw or Iraq
56%

Winning margin

Mexico wins by 2+
20%
Iraq wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mexico 1+ goals
72%
Mexico 2+ goals
37%
Mexico 3+ goals
14%
Iraq 1+ goals
61%
Iraq 2+ goals
24%
Iraq 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mexico (draw refunded)
62%
Iraq (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mexico at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 58 matches

Iraq away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mexico attack 1.64 + Iraq defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.28

Iraq attack 0.79 + Mexico defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mexico scores more
44%
level
28%
Iraq scores more
27%

Mexico at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mexico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
J. GallardoMexicoMexico · D
9.0

Match Events

4'
A. Vega↳ J. Gallardo
46'
R. Funes Mori← H. Martín
46'
L. Romo← C. Rodríguez
46'
É. Sánchez← H. Herrera
46'
J. Angulo← L. Chávez
46'
K. Álvarez← H. Moreno
46'
U. Antuna← A. Vega
48'
R. Funes Mori↳ U. Antuna
56'
Amir Al Ammari← Amjad Attwan
56'
Hiran Ahmed← Hussain Jabar
56'
Alai Ghasem← Hamzah Adnan
65'
Ammar Muhsen← Aymen Hussein
65'
Ahmad Zero← Mohammed Qasim
67'
J. Gallardo
78'
Hasan Abdulkareem← Ahmad Zero
90+2'
U. AntunaPenalty

Possession

73%Mexico

Shots

19Mexico

Pass accuracy

55%Mexico

Statistics

MexicoIraq
Overview
73%Possession27%
19Total Shots1
6Corners0
11Fouls9
Shots
19Total Shots1
6On Target0
9Off Target0
4Blocked1
16Inside Box0
3Outside Box1
Passing
73%Possession27%
802Total Passes299
744Accurate Passes228
93%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls9
1Offsides3

Mexico 4 – 0 Iraq

Mexico beat Iraq 4-0 in Friendlies on November 9, 2022.

Goals: A. Vega (4'), R. Funes Mori (48'), J. Gallardo (67'), U. Antuna (90+2' pen).

Mexico controlled possession (73%) and registered 19 shots to 1.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in Girona.