Mexico 4–0 Iceland: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Mexico

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Iceland

B. Gutierrez 90'

J. Gallardo 59'

A. Gonzalez 24'

R. Ledezma 22'

2/26/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalEstadio La Corregidora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Mexico52%

×Draw25%

Iceland23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MexicoExpected goals in this matchIceland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.99

Mexico

1.60

Iceland

0.99

Mexico creates 62% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 25 away

1.64

creates per match

0.88

1.09

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Mexico

1.64

Iceland

0.88

allows per match

Mexico

1.09

Iceland

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mexico+0.00on par

Iceland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mexico ↓

Iceland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mexico or draw

77%

Mexico or Iceland

75%

Draw or Iceland

48%

Winning margin

Mexico wins by 2+

27%

Iceland wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Mexico 1+ goals

80%

Mexico 2+ goals

47%

Mexico 3+ goals

22%

Iceland 1+ goals

63%

Iceland 2+ goals

26%

Iceland 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mexico (draw refunded)

69%

Iceland (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mexico at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 58 matches

Iceland away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.56 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mexico attack 1.64 + Iceland defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.60

Iceland attack 0.88 + Mexico defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mexico scores more

52%

level

25%

Iceland scores more

23%

Mexico at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mexico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Gallardo

Mexico · D

8.9

Match Events

22'

R. Ledezma↳ A. Gonzalez

24'

A. Gonzalez

57'

C. Rodriguez← E. Alvarez

57'

A. H. Gutierrez Torres← R. Alvarado

58'

E. Sanchez← M. Ruiz

59'

J. Gallardo↳ A. H. Gutierrez Torres

63'

H. Steingrimsson← H. Gudjonsson

63'

O. Borgthorsson← E. Atlason

63'

H. Gudmundsson← G. Kristjansson

66'

G. Martinez← A. Gonzalez

66'

J. Garza← R. Ledezma

66'

D. Campillo Del Campo← E. Lira

77'

B. Ingason← A. Thorsteinsson

85'

D. Hafsteinsson← J. Gudmundsson

85'

B. Helgason← G. Thorarinsson

90'

B. Gutierrez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MexicoIceland

Overview

57%Possession43%

24Total Shots4

8Corners2

24Fouls4

Shots

24Total Shots4

11On Target2

7Off Target1

6Blocked1

16Inside Box4

8Outside Box0

Passing

57%Possession43%

562Total Passes425

490Accurate Passes363

87%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

24Fouls4

1Yellow Cards1

5Offsides0

Friendlies: Mexico 4–0 Iceland

Mexico beat Iceland 4-0 in Friendlies on February 26, 2026.

Goals: R. Ledezma (22'), A. Gonzalez (24'), J. Gallardo (59'), B. Gutierrez (90').

Mexico controlled possession (57%) and registered 24 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio La Corregidora.

Mexico vs Iceland — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Friendlies: Mexico 4–0 Iceland