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Mexico vs Colombia — Friendlies 2026

Mexico
Mexico
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Colombia
Colombia
G. Arteaga 29'
A. Vega 6' (pen)
W. Barrios 68'
L. Sinisterra 52', 49'
9/28/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Levi's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Mexico33%
×Draw25%
Colombia41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mexico
1.32
Colombia
1.50

Colombia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 20 away

creates per match

Mexico
1.64
Colombia
1.90

allows per match

Mexico
1.09
Colombia
1.00

finishing

Mexico+0.00on par
Colombia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mexico ↓

Colombia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mexico or draw
59%
Mexico or Colombia
75%
Draw or Colombia
67%

Winning margin

Mexico wins by 2+
15%
Colombia wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Mexico 1+ goals
73%
Mexico 2+ goals
38%
Mexico 3+ goals
15%
Colombia 1+ goals
78%
Colombia 2+ goals
44%
Colombia 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mexico (draw refunded)
45%
Colombia (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mexico at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 58 matches

Colombia away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mexico attack 1.64 + Colombia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Colombia attack 1.90 + Mexico defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mexico scores more
33%
level
25%
Colombia scores more
41%

Colombia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Colombia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
L. SinisterraColombiaColombia · F
8.2

Match Events

6'
A. VegaPenalty
29'
G. Arteaga↳ É. Gutiérrez
46'
R. Borré← J. Rodríguez
46'
L. Sinisterra← R. Falcao
46'
J. Carrascal← S. Alzate
49'
L. Sinisterra↳ J. Cuadrado
52'
L. Sinisterra↳ J. Carrascal
60'
É. Sánchez← C. Rodríguez
60'
S. Giménez← H. Martín
61'
C. Montes← K. Álvarez
61'
L. Chávez← A. Guardado
68'
W. Barrios↳ R. Borré
73'
J. Lucumí← S. Medina
77'
D. Lainez← U. Antuna
77'
O. Pineda← É. Gutiérrez
87'
J. Lerma← W. Barrios
90+2'
J. Durán← L. Díaz

Possession

40%Mexico

Shots

8Mexico

Pass accuracy

48%Mexico

Statistics

MexicoColombia
Overview
40%Possession60%
8Total Shots10
4Corners3
17Fouls17
Shots
8Total Shots10
3On Target5
4Off Target2
1Blocked3
6Inside Box6
2Outside Box4
Passing
40%Possession60%
351Total Passes535
277Accurate Passes460
79%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls17
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Mexico vs Colombia

Colombia beat Mexico 3-2 in Friendlies on September 28, 2022.

Goals: A. Vega (6' pen), G. Arteaga (29'), L. Sinisterra (49', 52'), W. Barrios (68').

Colombia controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California.