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Mexico vs Canada — League #22 2026

Mexico
Mexicoadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Canada
Canada
H. Herrera 90+9'
O. Pineda 45+2' (pen)
T. Buchanan 57'
7/30/2021League #22League #22 · Semi-finalsNRG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mexico59%
×Draw24%
Canada17%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mexico
1.67
Canada
0.75

Mexico creates 123% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Mexico
1.33
Canada
1.00

allows per match

Mexico
0.50
Canada
2.00

finishing

Mexico+0.00on par
Canada+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mexico ↓

Canada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mexico or draw
83%
Mexico or Canada
76%
Draw or Canada
41%

Winning margin

Mexico wins by 2+
33%
Canada wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mexico 1+ goals
81%
Mexico 2+ goals
50%
Mexico 3+ goals
23%
Canada 1+ goals
53%
Canada 2+ goals
17%
Canada 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mexico (draw refunded)
78%
Canada (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mexico at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Canada away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mexico attack 1.33 + Canada defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Canada attack 1.00 + Mexico defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mexico scores more
59%
level
24%
Canada scores more
17%

Mexico at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mexico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
Carlos SalcedoMexicoMexico · D
7.7

Match Events

45'
D. Henry
45+2'
O. PinedaPenalty
49'
T. Buchanan
49'
J. Hoilett
57'
T. Buchanan↳ M. Kaye
61'
J. dos Santos← E. Gutierrez
66'
C. SalcedoMissed penalty
68'
E. Gutierrez
69'
T. Akindele← T. Corbeanu
78'
M. Kaye← L. Fraser
78'
O. Pineda← R. Pizarro
79'
J. Gallardo
90+9'
H. Herrera↳ R. Pizarro
90+12'
M. Crepeau
90+13'
J. Corona← N. Araujo

Possession

60%Mexico

Shots

14Mexico

Pass accuracy

53%Mexico

Statistics

MexicoCanada
Overview
60%Possession40%
14Total Shots9
4Corners2
17Fouls18
Shots
14Total Shots9
7On Target3
3Off Target2
4Blocked4
12Inside Box7
2Outside Box2
Passing
60%Possession40%
458Total Passes299
361Accurate Passes212
79%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
17Fouls18
2Yellow Cards4
0Offsides1

League #22: Mexico 2–1 Canada

Mexico beat Canada 2-1 in League #22 on July 30, 2021.

Goals: O. Pineda (45+2' pen), T. Buchanan (57'), H. Herrera (90+9').

Mexico controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.