Mexico 2–2 Australia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Mexico

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Australia

Cesar Huerta 83'

Raúl Jiménez 69' (pen)

Martin Boyle 63' (pen)

Harry Souttar 16'

9/10/2023

Friendlies · Friendlies 1AT&T Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Mexico44%

×Draw26%

Australia30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MexicoExpected goals in this matchAustralia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.13

Mexico

1.42

Australia

1.13

Mexico creates 26% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 16 away

1.64

creates per match

1.19

1.07

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Mexico

1.64

Australia

1.19

allows per match

Mexico

1.07

Australia

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mexico+0.00on par

Australia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mexico ↓

Australia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mexico or draw

70%

Mexico or Australia

74%

Draw or Australia

56%

Winning margin

Mexico wins by 2+

21%

Australia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mexico 1+ goals

76%

Mexico 2+ goals

41%

Mexico 3+ goals

17%

Australia 1+ goals

68%

Australia 2+ goals

31%

Australia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mexico (draw refunded)

59%

Australia (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mexico at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 56 matches

Australia away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mexico attack 1.64 + Australia defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.42

Australia attack 1.19 + Mexico defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mexico scores more

44%

level

26%

Australia scores more

30%

Mexico at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mexico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Cesar Huerta

Mexico · M

7.7

Match Events

16'

Harry Souttar↳ Martin Boyle

45+1'

Mitchell Duke

46'

Connor Metcalfe

55'

Santiago GiménezMissed penalty

60'

Cesar Huerta← Alexis Vega

60'

Raúl Jiménez← Santiago Giménez

63'

Martin BoylePenalty

67'

Nicholas D'Agostino← Mitchell Duke

68'

Denis Genreau← Connor Metcalfe

69'

Raúl JiménezPenalty

69'

Raúl Jiménez

74'

Samuel Silvera← Martin Boyle

77'

Erick Sánchez← Héctor Herrera

77'

Jordi Cortizo← Orbelín Pineda

82'

Kevin Álvarez← Julian Araujo

82'

Roberto Alvarado← Uriel Antuna

83'

Cesar Huerta↳ Johan Vásquez

88'

Miloš Degenek← Keanu Baccus

88'

Aiden O'Neill← Jackson Irvine

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MexicoAustralia

Overview

71%Possession29%

13Total Shots6

7Corners2

8Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots6

6On Target3

3Off Target2

4Blocked1

12Inside Box2

1Outside Box4

Passing

71%Possession29%

643Total Passes271

539Accurate Passes176

84%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Friendlies: Mexico 2–2 Australia

Mexico and Australia drew 2-2 in Friendlies on September 10, 2023.

Goals: Harry Souttar (16'), Martin Boyle (63' pen), Raúl Jiménez (69' pen), Cesar Huerta (83').

Mexico controlled possession (71%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Mexico vs Australia — Friendlies 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Friendlies: Mexico 2–2 Australia