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Mexico U23 vs Saudi Arabia U23 — Tournoi Maurice Revello 2022

Mexico U23
Mexico U23
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Saudi Arabia U23
Saudi Arabia U23
6/7/2024Tournoi Maurice RevelloTournoi Maurice Revello · Group Stage - 3Stade de Lattre de Tassigny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mexico U2349%
×Draw22%
Saudi Arabia U2329%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mexico U23
2.00
Saudi Arabia U23
1.50

Mexico U23 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Mexico U23
2.00
Saudi Arabia U23
1.25

allows per match

Mexico U23
1.75
Saudi Arabia U23
2.00

finishing

Mexico U23+0.00on par
Saudi Arabia U23+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mexico U23 ↓

Saudi Arabia U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Mexico U23 or draw
71%
Mexico U23 or Saudi Arabia U23
78%
Draw or Saudi Arabia U23
51%

Winning margin

Mexico U23 wins by 2+
28%
Saudi Arabia U23 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mexico U23 1+ goals
86%
Mexico U23 2+ goals
59%
Mexico U23 3+ goals
32%
Saudi Arabia U23 1+ goals
78%
Saudi Arabia U23 2+ goals
44%
Saudi Arabia U23 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mexico U23 (draw refunded)
63%
Saudi Arabia U23 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mexico U23 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Saudi Arabia U23 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mexico U23 attack 2.00 + Saudi Arabia U23 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Saudi Arabia U23 attack 1.25 + Mexico U23 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mexico U23 scores more
49%
level
22%
Saudi Arabia U23 scores more
29%

Mexico U23 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mexico U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tournoi Maurice Revello: Mexico U23 3–2 Saudi Arabia U23

Mexico U23 beat Saudi Arabia U23 3-2 in Tournoi Maurice Revello on June 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Lattre de Tassigny in Aubagne.