Mexico U23 1–3 Japan U19: Result & Stats

Mexico U23

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Japan U19

6/14/2024

Tournoi Maurice Revello · 5th Place FinalStade D'Honneur Mallemort

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mexico U2344%

×Draw20%

Japan U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mexico U23Expected goals in this matchJapan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

2.00

Mexico U23

2.25

Japan U19

2.00

Mexico U23 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

2.25

1.75

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Mexico U23

2.00

Japan U19

2.25

allows per match

Mexico U23

1.75

Japan U19

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mexico U23+0.00on par

Japan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mexico U23 ↓

Japan U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Mexico U23 or draw

65%

Mexico U23 or Japan U19

80%

Draw or Japan U19

56%

Winning margin

Mexico U23 wins by 2+

26%

Japan U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Mexico U23 1+ goals

89%

Mexico U23 2+ goals

65%

Mexico U23 3+ goals

39%

Japan U19 1+ goals

86%

Japan U19 2+ goals

59%

Japan U19 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Mexico U23 (draw refunded)

56%

Japan U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mexico U23 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Japan U19 away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mexico U23 attack 2.00 + Japan U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Japan U19 attack 2.25 + Mexico U23 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mexico U23 scores more

44%

level

20%

Japan U19 scores more

35%

Mexico U23 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mexico U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff