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Mexico U20 vs Costa Rica U20 — Friendlies 2018

Mexico U20
Mexico U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Costa Rica U20
Costa Rica U20
3/27/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mexico U2048%
×Draw28%
Costa Rica U2023%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mexico U20
1.32
Costa Rica U20
0.82

Mexico U20 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Mexico U20
1.40
Costa Rica U20
0.25

allows per match

Mexico U20
1.40
Costa Rica U20
1.25

finishing

Mexico U20+0.00on par
Costa Rica U20+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mexico U20 ↓

Costa Rica U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mexico U20 or draw
77%
Mexico U20 or Costa Rica U20
72%
Draw or Costa Rica U20
52%

Winning margin

Mexico U20 wins by 2+
23%
Costa Rica U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mexico U20 1+ goals
73%
Mexico U20 2+ goals
38%
Mexico U20 3+ goals
15%
Costa Rica U20 1+ goals
56%
Costa Rica U20 2+ goals
20%
Costa Rica U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mexico U20 (draw refunded)
68%
Costa Rica U20 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mexico U20 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Costa Rica U20 away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mexico U20 attack 1.40 + Costa Rica U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Costa Rica U20 attack 0.25 + Mexico U20 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mexico U20 scores more
48%
level
28%
Costa Rica U20 scores more
23%

Mexico U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mexico U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mexico U20 vs Costa Rica U20

Mexico U20 beat Costa Rica U20 1-0 in Friendlies on March 27, 2026.