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Mexico U17 W vs England U17 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Mexico U17 W
Mexico U17 W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
England U17 W
England U17 W
B. Brodie 84'
2/9/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mexico U17 W21%
×Draw31%
England U17 W48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mexico U17 W
0.67
England U17 W
1.17

England U17 W creates 75% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Mexico U17 W
0.67
England U17 W
1.33

allows per match

Mexico U17 W
1.00
England U17 W
0.67

finishing

Mexico U17 W+0.00on par
England U17 W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mexico U17 W ↓

England U17 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–119%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mexico U17 W or draw
52%
Mexico U17 W or England U17 W
69%
Draw or England U17 W
79%

Winning margin

Mexico U17 W wins by 2+
6%
England U17 W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Mexico U17 W 1+ goals
49%
Mexico U17 W 2+ goals
15%
Mexico U17 W 3+ goals
3%
England U17 W 1+ goals
69%
England U17 W 2+ goals
33%
England U17 W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mexico U17 W (draw refunded)
31%
England U17 W (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mexico U17 W at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

England U17 W away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mexico U17 W attack 0.67 + England U17 W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

England U17 W attack 1.33 + Mexico U17 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mexico U17 W scores more
21%
level
31%
England U17 W scores more
48%

England U17 W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "England U17 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

84'
B. Brodie

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Mexico U17 W 0–1 England U17 W

England U17 W beat Mexico U17 W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on February 9, 2026.

Goals: B. Brodie (84').