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Sport & Leisure Swifts vs Moyola Park — League #561 2026

Sport & Leisure Swifts
Sport & Leisure Swifts
FT
3 – 3
Moyola Park
Moyola Park
10/14/2017League #561League #561 · Round 7Glen Road Heights

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sport & Leisure Swifts40%
×Draw21%
Moyola Park38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport & Leisure Swifts
1.92
Moyola Park
1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sport & Leisure Swifts
1.80
Moyola Park
1.53

allows per match

Sport & Leisure Swifts
2.20
Moyola Park
2.03

finishing

Sport & Leisure Swifts+0.00on par
Moyola Park+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport & Leisure Swifts ↓

Moyola Park →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Sport & Leisure Swifts or draw
62%
Sport & Leisure Swifts or Moyola Park
79%
Draw or Moyola Park
60%

Winning margin

Sport & Leisure Swifts wins by 2+
22%
Moyola Park wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sport & Leisure Swifts 1+ goals
85%
Sport & Leisure Swifts 2+ goals
57%
Sport & Leisure Swifts 3+ goals
30%
Moyola Park 1+ goals
85%
Moyola Park 2+ goals
56%
Moyola Park 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Sport & Leisure Swifts (draw refunded)
51%
Moyola Park (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport & Leisure Swifts at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

Moyola Park away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport & Leisure Swifts attack 1.80 + Moyola Park defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.92

Moyola Park attack 1.53 + Sport & Leisure Swifts defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sport & Leisure Swifts scores more
40%
level
21%
Moyola Park scores more
38%

Sport & Leisure Swifts at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sport & Leisure Swifts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport & Leisure Swifts vs Moyola Park

Sport & Leisure Swifts and Moyola Park drew 3-3 in League #561 on October 14, 2017.

The match was played at Glen Road Heights in Belfast.